Can we use Google Trends to predict the next big thing in music?
Find out how to keep ahead of the local hipsters with Google Trends and how to apply your findings to marketing strategies.
google trends
Over the past fifty years the music industry has been dominated by a small number of all-encompassing genres, dictating many of the trends and patterns within the market. However within these core genres lie a wealth of sub-genres that occasionally rear their heads to compete with the mainstream assumptions made in the marketplace.
From the meteoric rise of punk in the late 70’s and early 80’s, which gave birth to an entire subculture, to the brief and bright growth of dubstep a few years ago, a sub-genre born from sub-genres which satisfied a small niche in the market, each had their own effect on the industry. But from a business perspective an insight into the booms of these small gaps in the market might prove beneficial, after all taking advantage of niches and budding trends can prove lucrative in the long run, facilitating first mover advantage and safeguarding industry leading opinions and ideas.
But how is it possible to explore these tiny sub genres before they become common knowledge? Google Trends might have the answer.
Whilst dubstep in the UK grew just as fast as it did worldwide the number of search terms around the topic were higher in the initial instance of growth, which could have given a savvy business mind a head start before the rest of the world. The core element to consider on this occasion was what would replace it. What new sub-genre would fill the gap in the market that dubstep had held in previous years.
There were a number of active sub-genres under the electronic umbrella at the time but it seems the turning point was when the consistently popular house music niche overtook dubstep as the new market leader within the industry. The key here is to monitor both negative and positive changes in the marketplace and monitor potential replacements for fad genres which could make way for a new competitor. We can see below that dubstep was on a downward trend whilst house music was slowly emerging as a front-runner, with some estimation we could have attained that house music was the horse to bet on.
An interesting element to note is that whilst we might see an explosion of a specific genre within the UK the worldwide market doesn’t necessarily mimic the trends experienced here. Hip-hop for example, has flourished over the past ten years, whereas the UK influenced elements of the genre don’t make it across the pond. Grime is a perfect example of this, a sub-genre of hip hop and garage born in the UK that seems to only appeal to the UK market. The grime trend fits perfectly under the hip-hop umbrella so much that it almost exactly mimics the overall trajectory since its growth in the early 2000s, at some points overtaking it entirely. Any initial growth in overseas industries might mean that the genre is becoming more widely accepted, creating a perfect opportunity to explore all available avenues and generate a targeted marketing strategy focused on capitalizing on that growing niche.
We can see that by closely observing searching habits and monitoring fluctuations within the music industry patterns and trends begin to appear. As these trends are usually in their infancy the ability to develop marketing strategies and manipulate existing strategies to incorporate new additions is far simpler. As the market becomes more saturated and these new sub-genres become more popular barriers to entry will begin to appear and attempting to capitalize on a trend at its peak will either mean you miss the boat or the competition will already be too high.
Whilst we have focused purely on the music industry as an example during this short post the use of Google Trends doesn’t end there. The vast majority of marketing strategy in fluctuating markets can benefit from an accurate assessment of trending topics and analysis of growing niches within those markets.
In short, research the niche you’re planning to work in and even if it is exhibiting a downward trend analyse what might replace it, allowing you to capitalize on completely new sub sections of an industry.