Who’s Winning The Twitter Election In 2015?

Twitter Leaders Social Media
IMAGE: Blueclaw

With less than a month until the General Election 2015 and with commentators predicting a hung parliament, it’s anybody’s guess who will win. However, with social media invading every element of life, influencing opinions and delivering the news, politicians have been forced to adopt an online presence or fade into obscurity.

But who’s winning on social media, and can Twitter provide some insight into who will win in May? Let’s break it down to the key stats and establish a few winners…

Does Twitter care about politics?

Outside of the general chatter about how rubbish your day was, what food you’re letting go cold so you can snap the perfect picture of and your latest selfie with your cutest top, Twitter is a phenomenally powerful tool to communicate messages.

No more prevalent is this belief than within the political sphere – in 2010, in the average month there were 324,000 unique mentions of the parties… now in 2015, you can expect upwards of 1,450,000.

Of these mentions, the parties split as follows:

 

Parties Number of mentions
“Labour” 910,210
“Conservative” 645,000
“UKIP” 459,000
“Liberal Democrats” 256,000
“SNP” 142,000
“Green Party” 127,000
“Plaid Cymru” 54,000

WINNER - MOST MENTIONED:

Naturally, the aforementioned winner will not have seen universal acclaim and each and every party will face scrutiny and negative press; however which has received the most positive sentiment in and around their party name?

 

Who has the most positive attribution?

Using Topsy, we have searched mentions of each political party to establish the sentiment score of each - essentially an approval rating on the micro-blogging site.


Parties Sentiment Score / 100
Green Party 75
Liberal Democrats 64
Plaid Cymru 59
Labour Party 53
SNP 47
UKIP 45
Conservative 37

WINNER - HIGHEST SOCIAL SENTIMENT:


 

So, who’s responding most actively?

In 2010, John Prescott was the most vocal tweeter, with 468 tweets between January and March - boasting a rate of 5 tweets per day, closely followed by Eric Pickles and Sadiq Khan.


2010

Name Who are they? Username Joined Tweets in Jan-March 2010 Tweets in Jan-March 2015
John Prescott Former Labour MP johnprescott Jan-09 468 96
Eric Pickles Conservative MP EricPickles Jul-09 370 305
Sadiq Khan Labour MP sadiqkhan Jan-09 230 1364
Julian Huppert Lib Dem MP julianhuppert May-07 227 3504
Alistair Carmichael Lib Dem MP acarmichaelmp Nov-09 222 72
Derek Wall Green Party member Anothergreen Feb-08 222 1236
Roger Helmer Head of Delegation for the UK Independence Party RogerHelmerMEP Jan-10 208 419
Natalie Bennett Green Party leader natalieben Oct-08 204 857
Nick de Bois Conservative MP nickdebois Feb-09 179 1053
Grant Shapps Conservative Party Chairman grantshapps Mar-08 170 164

However, in 2015, not only have the rankings changed markedly, but the sheer amount is increased considerably.

2015

Name Who are they? Username Joined Tweets in 2010 Tweets in 2015
Julian Huppert Lib Dem MP julianhuppert May-07 227 3504
Tim Farron Lib Dem MP timfarron Oct-09 131 3133
Sadiq Khan Labour MP sadiqkhan Jan-09 230 1364
Derek Wall Green Party member Anothergreen Feb-08 222 1236
Nick de Bois Conservative MP nickdebois Feb-09 179 1053
Natalie Bennett Green Party leader natalieben Oct-08 204 857
Don Foster Lib Dem Former MP DonFosterMP Oct-09 19 790
Suzanne Evans UKIP Deputy Chair SuzanneEvans1 Apr-09 18 730
Emily Thornberry Labour MP EmilyThornberry Jul-10 0 667
Rachel Reeves Labour MP RachelReevesMP Apr-09 59 661

 
In 2015, two Liberal Democrat MPs trounce all others with over 3,000 tweets posted each, with Cambridge MP Julian Huppert posting an average of 40 tweets per day. Blimey.

WINNER - MOST ACTIVE TWEETER:

 

So we know who’s the most active, but is there a large enough audience, and who has the biggest follower base?

In pre-election2010, whilst Conservative Chairman Grant Shapps and Labour leader Ed Milliband had a base of around 8,000 followers, it was Nick Clegg leading the march with an impressive 13,379 followers.

2010 Pre-Election

Name Role Twitter Username Joined Date of 1st Tweet Followers
Nick Clegg Lib Dem Party Leader Nick_Clegg Jun-08 04/06/2008 22:45 13379
Grant Shapps Conservative Party Chairman grantshapps Mar-08 09/03/2008 22:15 8537
Ed Milliband Labour Party Leader Ed_Miliband Jul-09 31/07/2009 16:39 8106
Ed Balls Labour Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer edballsmp Oct-08 18/06/2009 15:05 6192
Vince Cable Lib Dem Business Secretary vincecable Jul-09 03/11/2009 15:23 4606
Eric Pickles Conservative Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
Minister of Faith		 EricPickles Jul-09 02/10/2009 14:21 4024
Harriet Harman Labour Deputy Leader HarrietHarman Feb-09 18/02/2009 14:07 3883
William Hague Former 1st Secretary of State (by election time) WilliamJHague Mar-10 06/04/2010 18:46 3408
Sadiq Khan Labour Shadow Secretary of State for Justice sadiqkhan Jan-09 27/01/2009 19:44 2568
Nigel Farage UKIP Party Leader Nigel_Farage Jan-09 03/03/2009 15:14 2118

2010 Post Election

Name Role Twitter Username Joined Date of 1st Tweet Followers
David
Cameron		 Party Leader and Prime Minister David_Cameron Jan-10 06/10/2012 17:51 95158
Nick Clegg Party Leader Nick_Clegg Jun-08 04/06/2008 22:45 24944
David Miliband Brother of Labour Leader, Ed Milliband Dmiliband Sep-09 20/09/2009 23:57 21825
William Hague Former 1st Secretary of State (by election time) WilliamJHague Mar-10 06/04/2010 18:46 17371
Grant Shapps Conservative Party Chairman grantshapps Mar-08 09/03/2008 22:15 11592
Vince Cable Business Secretary vincecable Jul-09 03/11/2009 15:23 11447
Ed Milliband Party Leader and Leader of the Opposition Ed_Miliband Jul-09 31/07/2009 16:39 11,101
Ed Balls Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer edballsmp Oct-08 18/06/2009 15:05 10689
Harriet Harmen Deputy Leader HarrietHarman Feb-09 18/02/2009 14:07 7121
John Prescott Former Deputy Prime Minister johnprescott Jan-09 22/01/2009 12:03 6711

2015 Post-Election

Name Role Twitter Username Joined Date of 1st Tweet Followers
David
Cameron		 Party Leader and Prime Minister David_Cameron Jan-10 06/10/2012 17:51 940942
Ed Milliband Party Leader and Leader of the Opposition Ed_Miliband Jul-09 31/07/2009 16:39 390869
William Hague Former 1st Secretary of State (by election time) WilliamJHague Mar-10 06/04/2010 18:46 265197
John Prescott Former Deputy Prime Minister johnprescott Jan-09 22/01/2009 12:03 226627
George Aylett Prospective Labour MP for South West Wiltshire GeorgeAylett Jan-12 15/06/2013 17:44:59 222064
Nick Clegg Party Leader Nick_Clegg Jun-08 04/06/2008 22:45 213009
Nigel Farage Party Leader Nigel_Farage Jan-09 03/03/2009 15:14 196192
David Miliband Brother of Labour Leader, Ed Milliband Dmiliband Sep-09 20/09/2009 23:57 180101
Ed Balls Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer edballsmp Oct-08 18/06/2009 15:05 162799
Alex Salmond First Minister of Scotland & Former Leader of the SNP AlexSalmond Jan-11 25/01/2011 14:26 149213

 

In 5 years, David Cameron has gained just shy of a million followers, closely followed by Ed Milliband. Even with combined total of followers in the top 10, Labour are short of this total with 770,000. Would this have been the same situation were David Cameron not prime minister?

WINNER - MOST FOLLOWERS:

 

Finally, who of the party leaders actually commands the highest social authority on Twitter?

Screen name Full name Joined Twitter Tweets Followers Social Authority
Nigel_Farage Nigel Farage 15/01/2009 7916 208,951 83
Ed_Miliband Ed Miliband 31/07/2009 4,463 389,647 82
David_Cameron David Cameron 08/01/2010 1561 938,638 79
NatalieBen Natalie Bennett 04/10/2008 23,935 68,583 76
Nick_Clegg Nick Clegg 04/06/2008 2,077 224,898 73
NicolaSturgeon Nicola Sturgeon 29/06/2010 3,414 169,660 79
LeanneWood Leanne Wood 20/04/2008 15,842 23,285 74

WINNER - MOST SOCIAL AUTHORITY:



Although all party leaders have an authority over at least 70, representing a strong presence on Twitter, it’s Nigel Farage that leads the way. With an active account, frequent use of rich media and frequently-retweeted posts, the UKIP leader has built the most influence amongst Twitter users.

And the winner of the (Twitter) election is…

 

 

A hung parliament.

Each party has its strengths in individual aspects of social media with no clear leader. Ultimately, whether positive sentiment, most mentions or highest social authority has the most impact in the political world will be proven on the 7th May.

Do you think that Twitter plays a significant role in determining the success of politicians in this digital age? Let us know in the comments below…

 

Data correct as of March 31st 2015, collated from Twitter, Twitonomy, Followerwonk and Topsy. Full data available on request.